Insufficient housing inventory in the hottest seco

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The housing inventory in key second tier cities is insufficient or the new round of policies is tightened

the housing inventory in key second tier cities is insufficient or the new round of policies is tightened

April 21, 2016

[China paint information] the housing inventory in Hefei, Suzhou and Nanjing is less than 3 months

the key second tier cities or the new round of policies are tightened

on the 18th, the National Bureau of statistics released the changes in housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March, The rise in real estate prices has expanded significantly. Compared with the previous month, 62 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities rose, an increase of 15 over the previous month, with the highest price increase of 5.4% month on month and the lowest price decrease of 0.7%. It is worth noting that since January 2014, the price of new housing has risen again in 62 cities

in this regard, industry insiders said that with the continuation of the de stocking policy, the volume and price of house prices rose in March, and house prices rose in most cities, but the trend of differentiation is still obvious. At the same time, due to the tightening of first tier cities, some investment funds withdrew from first tier cities and entered second tier cities, prompting some second tier cities to exceed first tier cities in price increases. Therefore, key second tier cities may usher in a new round of policy tightening

liujianwei, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in March, house prices in most cities rose month on month, and the number of rising cities increased significantly compared with the previous month, with the overall increase expanding. According to the data released, in March, 62 and 54 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities saw the price of new commercial housing and second-hand housing rise month on month, an increase of 15 and 20 respectively over the previous month. Among the cities whose new housing prices rose month on month, 55 cities saw a higher rise than last month, an increase of 22 over February; Among the cities where second-hand housing prices rose month on month, 47 cities saw higher increases than last month, an increase of 23 from February

Liu Jianwei pointed out that although the housing prices in most cities have increased month on month, there are still large differences in the increase between cities. The cities that have increased too fast are mainly concentrated in the first tier cities and some hot second tier cities, and their housing price increases are much higher than other cities, while the housing price trends in the other second and third tier cities are relatively stable

it is worth noting that the price increase in some second tier cities in March has been the same as that in first tier cities, and even exceeded that in first tier cities. In terms of new residential buildings in March, Xiamen rose 5.4% month on month, Hefei rose 4.6%, Nanjing rose 3.5%, Hangzhou rose 2.3%, Tianjin rose 2.2%, Fuzhou and Wuxi rose 2%. In the first tier cities, Beijing Rose 3.3% month on month, Shanghai rose 4.3%, Shenzhen rose 3.7% month on month, and Guangzhou rose 2.9% month on month

Zhang Dawei, director of Zhongyuan Real estate market, said that in March 2016, the excitement of first tier cities spread to other key cities across the country. The trading volume of new houses in 40 cities hit a seven-year high, and the trading volume of second-hand houses in 21 cities was second only to the historic high in March 2013

Zhang Dawei pointed out that with the continuous improvement of sales, inventories in key cities have fallen actively. Among the 20 monitored cities, 19 cities' inventories in March decreased compared with the end of last year, and inventories in Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing and other places decreased by more than 30%. From the perspective of digestion cycle, the inventory digestion cycle of 20 key cities in March was shortened to varying degrees compared with that of last December. The digestion cycle of Hefei, Suzhou and Nanjing was only 2 to 3 months, and the market was seriously in short supply

indeed, the latest report released by Shanghai Research Institute shows that as of 2016, its automobile manufacturing and other industries were important drivers of plastic innovation. At the end of March, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 35 cities monitored by the Institute was 249.28 million square meters, a decrease of 1.3% month on month and 6.2% year on year. Among them, the inventory of 22 cities showed a year-on-year decline, among which Hefei, Suzhou and Nanjing showed a large year-on-year decline, with a decline of 58.4%, 54.3% and 42.0% respectively, and the inventory was significantly insufficient

Zhang Dawei said that the reason for the sharp reduction in inventory is that on the one hand, the local market transaction performance is good, and the supply of follow-up projects of real estate enterprises is still difficult to keep up, on the other hand, due to price changes, some regions are reluctant to sell

Zhang Dawei said that the real estate market has entered a new normal, that is, with the rapid rise in some cities, the inventory pressure in most third - and fourth tier cities is still not large for waterproof membrane manufacturers. Therefore, the policy direction is no longer one-way easing, but two-way bottoming and capping

in this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the Academy, also said that under the background of high housing prices and tightening policies in first tier cities, some investment and speculation funds began to withdraw from first tier cities and enter second tier cities. However, this market with non rigid demand increases the risk of policy tightening in some second tier cities. This means that some key cities may focus on ushering in a new round of policy tightening

Zhang Dawei also pointed out that the simultaneous rise of volume and price in March may become the biggest Carnival in the year. The subsequent market is not only facing natural callback pressure, but also hot cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are suffering from the most stringent regulation and control policies in history. The short-term effect of the policy has been seen, and the market will gradually enter the adjustment. "At the end of March, the Central Plains quotation index of Shanghai and Shenzhen both fell below 50%, that is, the falling quotation houses have exceeded the rising houses."

indeed, in addition to the tightening policies issued by Shanghai and Shenzhen recently, Langfang said that housing purchase restrictions and differentiated housing credit policies were implemented, non local registered residence households were limited to one house, and the proportion of down payment of purchase customers was not less than 30%

in addition, on March 25, Nanjing and Wuhan issued tightening policies respectively. Nanjing said that the provincial financial departments are required to implement differentiated personal housing credit policies, strictly review the proportion of down payment of home buyers, and your problem is our responsibility. The source of down payment funds is our responsibility. We should pay more attention to the quality of real estate loan assets, regional concentration, and institutional robustness: when adding a large amount of data, we should monitor. In Wuhan, a new policy on provident fund loans was issued. The maximum amount of provident fund loans applied for by working families to purchase the first house was reduced from 600000 yuan to 500000 yuan, and the maximum amount of provident fund loans applied for purchasing the second house was 500000 yuan, deducting the difference after the first use of provident fund loans. In addition, Wuhan also adjusted the loan repayment capacity coefficient from 45% to 35%, and lowered the housing provident fund deposit time coefficient in the calculation formula of the deposit multiple method, with the coefficient generally reduced by 0.2 to 0.5

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