The deregulation pressure of the "red may" deregulation property market increased
the deregulation pressure of the "red may" deregulation property market increased
May 28, 2019
in May 2019, the transactions in the national housing market were generally flat, and the traditional "red may" market did not appear. Even during the May Day golden week, more people still choose to visit relatives and friends, travel, etc., rather than look at houses and buy houses. Industry analysts believe that the short-term "little spring" in the real estate market since March 2019 has not continued. The overall sales market was depressed in May. The actual number of visits to most urban project sites was unsatisfactory, and the trading volume fell sharply
"red may" hot selling market is no longer
recently, a visit to the Beijing area of Hebei Province found that the sales price of the "three northern counties" property market has increased since the beginning of 2019, and the number of people coming to see the house has increased significantly. However, as of May, affected by the strict purchase restriction policy, the sales volume was basically dormant, and the pressure of real estate destocking was prominent
"it has been almost two years since so many people came to see the house." A real estate consultant at the sales office in Seoul sweet city in Yanjiao said. Two years ago, Langfang and other cities around Beijing introduced purchase restriction policies, local house prices quickly "halved", and trading volume also fell into freezing point
from the fourth quarter of 2018, the "three northern counties" have continued to benefit. Especially the direct benefit of the subway line, the sales price of apartments along the line increased by 2000 yuan compared with the end of 2018. However, the property market has not got rid of the embarrassing situation of price without market. The above real estate consultants said, "since 2019, although the number of visitors has increased, the trading volume is still at a low ebb, and many intermediary companies have closed down."
not only around Beijing, the statistics of Kerry Research Center show that the real estate market in all line cities has been generally depressed since May. Taking the transaction data of the May Day golden week as an example, a total of 1.61 million square meters were traded in 40 key cities monitored, a year-on-year decrease of 55%. The trading volume of all tier cities fell, with the first year-on-year decline of -68% in tier two cities
specifically, the trading volume of the four first tier cities fell by 27% year-on-year, and Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou all fell back to varying degrees. Beijing was as low as 12000 square meters, down 75% year-on-year. The Shenzhen market recovered, and the trading volume increased by 41% year-on-year. The trading volume of 11 second tier cities fell to a record low, down 68% year-on-year. Hefei, Changsha, Qingdao and other markets turned cold significantly, with a year-on-year decline of more than -70% in trading volume, and more than -80% in Nanjing and Chengdu
the trading volume of 25 third and fourth tier cities decreased by 43% year-on-year, and the market of each city was significantly differentiated. Among them, the market heat of Huizhou, Wenzhou and Huzhou was significantly lower than that of the same period last year, and the trading volume was halved year-on-year. During the May Day holiday, Yangzhou and Shaoguan real estate markets were unusually cold, with trading volumes of less than 10000 square meters, down more than -90% year-on-year
the pressure of property market deregulation has generally increased.
according to the statistics of Centaline real estate research center, up to now, the inventory of Beijing property market has reached 71300 units, a new high in recent 8 years. In fact, the inventory of Beijing real estate market has increased by nearly 20000 units in the past year, with an increase of 42%, especially in the second half of 2018, there was another obvious supply blowout
"in the past three years, Beijing has sold a total of 95 commercial housing residential plots (limited competition housing 9 in many times, the experimental machine was damaged by a partial part, resulting in two cases of the experimental machine not working), and the total planned commercial housing construction area has reached 8.51 million square meters." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline, said, "according to the normal investment logic, the total investment scale of these more than 90 projects is about 500billion, superimposed with the investment of Jian'an taxes and fees. However, so far, the sales scale is only 50billion."
"on the one hand, the scale of land supply in the Beijing market over the past two years has gradually begun to be reflected in the number of residential houses, and it is expected that a large number of houses will be listed in the future. On the other hand, the phenomenon of supply clustering is obvious, and buyers are still on the sidelines, which aggravates the situation of supply exceeding demand." Zhang Dawei said
the "three northern counties" in Hebei, which are closest to Beijing, are also facing the pressure of de urbanization. Since March 2019, Langfang municipal government has launched a special action to rectify the illegal sales of the city's real estate brokerage agencies, and strictly investigated 12 illegal sales behaviors such as avoiding the purchase restriction policy
insiders pointed out that this almost "blocked" the housing purchase groups who tried to pay the housing fund first and then supplement the social security, and the pressure on developers and intermediary sales increased further. According to the data of Langfang housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, in 2016, 2017 and 2018, the transaction area of new commercial housing in Langfang fell from 17.61 million square meters to 7.46 million square meters and 3.81 million square meters, of which the transaction area of residential housing fell from 16.03 million square meters to 6.38 million square meters and 2.77 million square meters, showing a cliff like slump. Dachang Hui Autonomous County faces Tongzhou District across the river. After strict purchase restrictions and other policy adjustments, 344 new commercial housing units, 39000 square meters, were sold in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 95%, including 159 basic situation houses, 15200 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 98%
according to the monitoring data of E-House Real Estate Research Institute on the national housing inventory in 100 cities, by the end of March 2019, the total inventory of newly-built commercial housing in 100 cities monitored was 45.1 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year. According to historical data, since September 2018, the inventory of houses in Baicheng has changed from the previous trend of continuous decline and began to enter the upward channel
"it is expected that inventory will still rise in the second quarter." Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute for deep binding of large enterprises and large customers, said that in March 2019, inventories in 51 of the 100 cities monitored showed year-on-year growth. Among them, inventories in Huizhou, Fuzhou and Langfang increased rapidly, with year-on-year growth rates of 104%, 82% and 79% respectively
comparing the inventory data of each line of cities, it can be seen that the trend of inventory increase in the third and fourth tier cities is more obvious. Since November 2018, inventories in third and fourth tier cities have shown a sustained positive growth trend month on month and year on year. In particular, inventories in third and fourth tier cities have been rising significantly in the past five months. Yan Yuejin pointed out that "the third and fourth tier real estate market has entered a significant cooling channel, which has increased the pressure of inventory destocking."
some cities try to transform and develop
due to the warming of the land market in some cities in the past month, from April to now, nearly 20 ministries and commissions and cities have issued various real estate tightening control policies. Policy adjustments for cities with significantly rising house prices have occurred frequently, and Suzhou and other cities have even issued tightening control policies continuously
among them, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, on the basis of early warning prompts for six cities on April 19, recently gave early warning prompts for four cities in Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, where the price index of new commercial housing and second-hand housing has increased significantly in the past three months
"the Ministry of housing and urban rural development has issued early warning tips for urban price rises for two consecutive times, and the early warning, interview and accountability mechanisms have reappeared." According to Zhang Dawei's analysis, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development once again clearly requires that housing should not be sold, timely prompt and guide cities with fluctuations in the real estate market, and conduct interviews with local governments that are not conducive to the implementation of the task of "stabilizing the local real estate market", and then hold them accountable in accordance with relevant procedures and in conjunction with relevant departments. It means that the regulation and control of national real estate will still maintain the previous high temperature state. "Continue to maintain the continuity and stability of regulation policies, strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support the reasonable demand for owner occupied housing, and resolutely curb speculation and real estate speculation"
Yang Kewei, a researcher at Kerui Research Center, analyzed that the "red may" of the property market had a poor start, and the transaction of the property market was cold during the May Day holiday. On the other hand, since May and June are the critical period for real estate enterprises to concentrate on sprinting half a year's performance, the enthusiasm of enterprises for case promotion and marketing continues to rise, and the market supply scale is expected to remain at a high level. Judging from the current market situation, the differentiation pattern of urban transactions will continue for a longer time. The market demand of the first and second tier cities is relatively sufficient, and the trading volume may still remain high; The third and fourth tier cities are hardly optimistic, and the real estate market is still facing some adjustment pressure
it is worth mentioning that the recovery of cellular elasticity in the property market in the cold winter has a certain impact on regional economic and social development. In some regions, real estate development has slowed down and the development volume has decreased, making the total investment in fixed assets continue to decline. Due to the wide coverage of the real estate industry and the dormancy of the real estate market, the development of construction, real estate intermediary, decoration, home appliances and other related industries slowed down and the income declined. In some areas, about half of the real estate agents are closed. Some developers have high inventories and difficulties in collecting payments, resulting in layoffs, and the progress of their shanty town reconstruction projects has also been affected
an industry insider in Langfang pointed out that the development of the local real estate industry has been in a downward trend since 2017. According to the current market situation, the development volume will continue to decline significantly. Dachang County expects that the new commercial housing area in 2019 will be about 400000 square meters, which has reached the level of 2009, with a decrease of 78.33% compared with the peak year of development, and the decline of industry development appears
in the face of the downturn in the real estate market, some regions around Beijing have taken the initiative to seek change, began to seek transformation and development, and cracked the "real estate dependency", such as vigorously developing high-tech industries such as "smart mobile cloud" (big data, intelligent manufacturing, mobile Internet, Cloud Computing), as well as high-end equipment manufacturing and modern service industries, and actively undertaking Beijing Tianjin industrial transfer according to local characteristics, In 2018, economic growth was still achieved when the real estate market was "cold"